Revolutionizing Marketing Budget Allocation with Media Mix Modeling

Stop guessing where to spend your budget and start predicting.

Data Science
Retail

The client is a well-known pioneer in the at-home fitness and strength training industry, selling their subscription-based training product. Through AI innovation, they make training at home with experienced guidance and personalized programs possible.   

The Challenge

The client’s marketing team wanted to move away from intuition-led spending. The team wanted to (1) reallocate spend toward what actually acquires customers, and (2) predict orders based on the planned budget.

The Solution

Alongside their marketing and data teams, we created a Media Mix Model built with adstock (carryover) and saturation curves, recency-weighted training, and out-of-sample validation. Together we shifted spend toward channels with headroom. We lead the net-orders prediction pipeline — forecasting weekly and monthly orders for any proposed budget.

Impact

4.5%
Reduced 4.5% blended customer acquisition cost.
87%
~87% out-of-sample accuracy forecasting monthly net orders (~94% cumulative over a 4-month holdout horizon)

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